Authors
Mitra Fouladirad, Christian Paroissin, Antoine Grall,
Title
Sensitivity of optimal replacement policies to lifetime parameter estimates
In
European Journal of Operational Research
Volume
266
Issue
3
Pages
963–975
Publisher
Elsevier
Year
2018
Indexed by
Abstract
This paper analyzes three time-based replacement policies when the parameters of the time-to-failure distribution are unknown. Under the hypothesis of a large sample data, the unknown parameters are estimated via maximum likelihood method. The uncertainty around the point estimates impacts the maintenance decision rules. Based on the asymptotic normality of the parameter estimators and delta-method, the asymptotic distribution of the optimal decision parameter and the average cost is derived. This distribution permits to measure the uncertainty around the optimal maintenance decision rule induced by the point estimates. The sensitivity analysis of the replacement policies to the maintenance unit costs and lifetime distribution parameters is carried out. Application to two time-to-failure distributions is provided.
Affiliations
Offprint